India’s characterization of “Operation Sindoor” as a limited counterterrorism operation, carefully calibrated to avoid military targets and minimize the risk of War, suggests an attempt to manage the crisis by signaling restraint to both Pakistan and the international community.
By publicly framing its actions as targeted and non-escalatory, India likely aimed to preempt a major retaliatory response from Pakistan.
However, the conflicting narratives regarding the targets and the resulting civilian casualties, as claimed by Pakistan, introduce a dangerous element. Civilian deaths, regardless of the intended target, have the potential to ignite public anger in Pakistan and significantly increase the pressure on the government to respond more forcefully. This discrepancy in accounts underscores the fragility of the situation and the inherent risk of an escalatory spiral fueled by differing perceptions and emotional responses.
Historical Context of India-Pakistan Conflicts:
The potential for a nuclear war between India and Pakistan carries consequences that extend far beyond the immediate region, with the very real possibility of triggering a global environmental catastrophe and widespread famine. Even a limited nuclear exchange could release enough smoke into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight, causing a significant and prolonged drop in global temperatures.
| Year | Name of Conflict | Primary Cause(s) | Key Outcomes |
| 1947-1948 | First Kashmir War | Accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India | Ceasefire, establishment of the Line of Control (LoC) |
| 1965 | Second Indo-Pak War | Dispute over Kashmir | Stalemate, Tashkent Agreement |
| 1971 | Bangladesh Liberation War | Bangladesh independence movement | Creation of Bangladesh, significant Pakistani defeat |
| 1999 | Kargil War | Pakistani infiltration into Indian-administered Kashmir | Indian victory, Pakistani withdrawal |
| 1984-2003 | Siachen Conflict | Dispute over the Siachen Glacier | Ongoing military engagement |
| 2001-2002 | India-Pakistan Standoff | Attack on Indian Parliament | Military standoff, de-escalation through diplomatic efforts |
| 2019 | Balakot Airstrikes | Pulwama terror attack | Indian airstrikes in Pakistan, Pakistani retaliation, de-escalation through international intervention |
| 2025 | Operation Sindoor & Border Skirmishes | Pahalgam terror attack | Indian missile strikes in Pakistan, Pakistani retaliation, ongoing tensions and border skirmishes |
The partition of British India in 1947 laid the foundation for a complex and often hostile relationship between the newly formed nations of India and Pakistan. The unresolved status of Jammu and Kashmir, a region claimed in its entirety by both countries but administered in parts, has served as the primary catalyst for persistent tensions and multiple armed conflicts. This enduring rivalry has been punctuated by four major wars and numerous smaller conflicts and military standoffs. The latest surge in tensions was triggered by a deadly terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of twenty-six individuals, mostly Indian tourists. India swiftly blamed Pakistan for backing the militants responsible for the attack, a charge Islamabad denied. In response to the Pahalgam attack, India launched a military operation codenamed “Operation Sindoor,” further escalating the already tense situation. This report aims to provide a detailed analysis of these recent events, assess the potential for further escalation towards a full-fledged conventional war, evaluate the risk of nuclear conflict, and explore possible avenues for de-escalation.
Pakistan’s Response and Escalatory Rhetoric:
Pakistan swiftly and strongly condemned India’s military strikes, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif labeling the attacks as a “cowardly act” and asserting that Islamabad was giving a “befitting reply” to this “act of war” imposed by New Delhi. The Pakistani government vowed to respond to the Indian aggression at a time and place of its own choosing. In the immediate aftermath of the strikes, Pakistani officials claimed to have shot down several Indian fighter jets and even taken a number of Indian soldiers prisoner. However, these claims were quickly disputed by India. Following India’s attacks, reports emerged of intense shelling and heavy gunfire across the Line of Control (LoC) that separates Pakistan-administered Kashmir from Indian-administered Kashmir.
The Specter of Nuclear War:
India has a declared nuclear doctrine that includes a “No First Use” (NFU) policy, stating that it will only use nuclear weapons in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere. This doctrine also emphasizes that any nuclear retaliation would be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage on the aggressor. However, India’s NFU policy has certain nuances, including the stated option of nuclear retaliation in the event of a major attack using biological or chemical weapons. There has also been debate regarding the applicability of the NFU policy to nuclear-armed states. In contrast, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine does not include a “No First Use” policy. Instead, Pakistan emphasizes “minimum credible deterrence” and maintains the option of using nuclear weapons first in the event of a war, particularly in response to conventional military attacks from India that threaten the state’s existence. To counter India’s larger and superior conventional forces, Pakistan has also developed tactical nuclear weapons. Estimates suggest that both India and Pakistan possess nuclear arsenals of roughly similar size, with around 160-170 warheads each.
Some assessments indicate that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could potentially grow significantly by 2025.
Several experts have voiced concerns about the real potential for nuclear use if the current crisis escalates into a full-fledged conventional war.
The recent military strikes by India on Pakistan, following the tragic terrorist attack in Pahalgam, have significantly escalated the already precarious relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. While the immediate risk of a full-scale nuclear war appears to be contained due to the devastating consequences for both nations and the potential for international intervention, the likelihood of further conventional escalation remains a serious concern. The historical context of enduring rivalry, coupled with intense domestic pressures in both countries, the breakdown of crucial bilateral agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty, and the inherent risks of miscalculation in a highly charged atmosphere, all contribute to this elevated risk.
The potential for a nuclear war between India and Pakistan carries consequences that extend far beyond the immediate region, with the very real possibility of triggering a global environmental catastrophe and widespread famine. Even a limited nuclear exchange could release enough smoke into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight, causing a significant and prolonged drop in global temperatures. This “nuclear winter” would severely disrupt agricultural production on a worldwide scale, leading to unprecedented food shortages and potentially famine for billions of people.
